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Interest centred mainly on Outside Central Region (OCR) (Figure 1) while the proportion of Singaporeans buying private residential properties increased to above 80 per cent in April and May, reflecting underlying confidence in the market.
To find out how COVID affects home buyer's decision making process when choosing their dream home, you may read the news analysis article here.
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- Memories of past cycles. Looking back at past crises, including the Sars public health crisis, residential prices in land-scarce Singapore have rebounded after each cycle, on one occasion by as much as 62 per cent after the 2008 global financial crisis (Figure 2). From an economic perspective, the scarcity of land appears to be a supply fundamental that can weather the erosive effect of shocks.
- High liquidity with limited investment options. For many, there are currently limited options with a wall of money trying to find an investment, gravitating them to residential properties.
- Low cost of borrowing. The cost of borrowing is at an all-time low and interest rates are expected to remain low in the near future with the current fixed rate mortgage rate of about 1.5 per cent.
- Stable asset class. Real estate is a relatively stable asset class. For instance, in Q1 2020, the URA private residential property price index fell by one per cent. This contrasts with the STI which fell by 23 per cent and property stocks by more than 20 per cent, notwithstanding that the stock market has recovered some ground since then.
- Emotional attachment. Owners often have strong emotional ties to their residential properties as it is an asset where one can physically enjoy and have the pride of ownership, a legacy which can be passed on to the next generation.
- Serious investors with longer term perspective. Macro-prudential policies introduced over the years have also weeded out speculators, leaving genuine investors who take a longer-term perspective.
- Established developers. Similarly, the many crises we have weathered have ensured that developers who survived are generally in a much better position with stronger balance sheets than before, lending stability to the market.
Real estate professional Kiwi Lim from Huttons Asia is seeing an increase in real estate interest from overseas foreign buyers especially from Hong Kong and China eyeing Singapore properties. Just last month in June 2020, right after the circuit breaker in Singapore eases into phase 2, Singapore saw 169 purchases by foreigners, made up of 120 permanent residents (PRs) and 49 non-PRs. The previous high was in August 2019 with 188 foreign buyers.
Private property prices increased 0.3% in 2nd Quarter of 2020 in spite of COVID pandemic. Read the news article here.
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Supply of private residential housing from confirmed sites under the government land sales (GLS) programme for 2nd half of 2020 has been reduced to take into account the fallout from the global Covid-19 situation, the Ministry of National Development (MND) announced on Wednesday - 24 June 2020.
Together, the three sites can yield about 1,370 units, including 615 executive condominium units. The total number of homes that can be developed, however, is nearly 23 per cent less than the 1,775 units under the confimed list in the GLS programme for the first half of the year.
This is also the lowest number since the second half of 2009 during the global financial crisis when no confirmed list sites were released.
The GLS plot at Northumberland Road may house 385 units
MND said they have maintained a good selection of sites with additional supply in the reserve list that developers can initiate for development if they assess that there is demand and has provided a "moderate supply" in the confirmed list this time round, as the number of the unsold inventory of private housing units has declined by a cumulative 20 per cent between the first half of 2019 and this year.
The three sites as shown below will be launched in the last quarter of this year and have a longer tender period of six months to allow developers more time to make their assessment in view of the ongoing COVID-19 situation.
Forett at Bukit Timah condo along Toh Tuck Road, in District 21 near PIE and short walk to Beauty World MRT station, The Rail Mall, Beauty World Centre and Bukit Timah Shopping Centre. Forett at Bukit Timah is also near Pei Hwa Presbyterian Primary, NUS High School, Nan Hua High School & Ngee Ann Polytechnic.
Moderate-size projects have digestible development costs (including construction costs) for developers and the new project will have sufficient residential volume to result in resident and project vibrancy - and will be even more attractive for developers to focus on amid this crisis.
The Ang Mo Kio GLS site is estimated to yield 370 units
3rd site on the confirmed list is for an executive condominium at Tengah Garden Walk, expected to yield 615 units
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In the monthly update by URA, the property market confounded all expectations by turning in an exceptional performance in April 2020. Developers sold an estimated 277 units in April and almost 100 units via virtual viewing from 7 to 30 April.
There were still naysayers who believed the worst in the economy is yet to come with a deeper recession and more unemployment. They further predict that sales volume will fall in May 2020 as the circuit breaker and physical viewing was extended to 1 June.
Huttons did an analysis of developer sales based on caveats downloaded on 8 June 2020. Again, the property market never failed to surprise us with its strength and resilience. Developers sold an estimated 484 units in May 2020, an eye-popping 75% higher than April’s sales. Before the circuit breaker, developer sales have exceeded launches for six consecutive months. We believe it will be the case of sales exceeding launches in May, reflecting the depth of demand in the market.
Why did people continue to buy properties amidst the uncertainties?
Firstly, we think there is a shift in buying behaviour. While property is a big-ticket purchase, the one-month circuit breaker in April has made people accustomed to buying things online. Without this shift in buying behaviour, online sales of property will be very challenging. There were many examples of buyers who commit to a purchase in May 2020 without even viewing the show gallery.
Secondly, the high savings rate of residents is a boon in this uncertain time and it has given asset purchases like properties a boost. M2 deposits in Singapore has risen by almost S$80 billion or 13% over a period of 15 months.
Lastly, it is a bit counter-intuitive but Covid-19 actually jolted some buyers to actively plan for their future. The uncertainties over income and employment were a wake-up call that the road to financial freedom lies elsewhere. Safer and stable assets like properties were preferred over the volatile stock market.
Huttons Asia's real estate professional - Kiwi Lim said that the government has also raised the awareness that construction costs are going to increase by around 5% to 7% in the near future due to Covid measures in place at construction sites and higher cost of construction materials. This will mean that developers will not be able to give more discounts now and some may need to even transfer the higher costs to buyers in future.
Taken in totality, this shows that buyers are ignoring the short-term uncertainties caused by Covid-19 and buying into the long-term fundamentals of Singapore, reflecting a resilient property market! The buying momentum had continued into June 2020. Developers sold around 130 units in the first week of June. Which are the top selling projects in the first week of June? Follow us on our next issue.
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Lawrence Wong announced on 16 May 2020 that new HDB BTOs and properties will be priced higher in future due to higher costs of construction brought about by Covid.
The measures to keep Covid-19 transmission low in the construction sector are bound to increase costs for contractors, which they will have to bear in principle. National Development Minister Lawrence Wong said at a press conference on 16 May 2020 that construction costs will rise as a result, and all in Singapore must be prepared to bear them.
We see a lot of pent up demand accumulating from the 1st half of this year as the usual yearly demand for properties build up during the Covid pandemic where viewings were reduced and eventually stopped during the circuit breaker period.
Huttons Asia's real estate professional Kiwi Lim said "property buyers after enduring for the first half of the year released some pent up demand when sales picked up during circuit breaker period to exceed pre-circuit breaker period sales even though buyers were not able to physically view showflats but had to buy only thru online viewings. This is unprecedented and an amazing show of strong market demand.
Vicky Zhao's husband bought $28 million Ardmore Park last month in April 2020
Huttons Asia's property analyst Kiwi Lim said "foreign buyers have always made a splash in our real-estate property market and during this Covid pandemic, Singaporeans see a rare period where the majority of foreign buyers are absent as they are locked down in their own countries, resulting in only a small trickle of foreigner purchases, e.g. Vicky Zhao's purchase last month. These foreign buyers will return once the dust settles over Covid."
Each year, we have around an estimated 30,000 new permanent residents in Singapore and these new SPRs are not eligible for BTOs and they have to wait 3 years before they can buy a HDB resale flat. Many of them are urgent to own a property and therefore chose to buy a private condo instead. This group of new SPRs this year have also been holding back their purchase due to Covid and their demand for property will accumulate to coincide with the new batch of 30,000 SPRs next year to search for their dream homes.
5. Many Enbloc Buyers Are Still Actively Looking
More than 10,000 millionaire households were created during the 2017 and 2018 enbloc fever. Less than half of these owners had made their move to buy properties with their new wealth derived from property. The other half is expected to make their move soon.
Developers have launched around an estimated 2 / 3 of their available land banks bought during the enbloc fever and will have lesser new condo projects to launch in the next few years.
7. Circuit Breaker Creates New Demand
Families are required to stay home during this recent Circuit Breaker period and such an extended period of being at home with the family has caused enormous friction among family members resulting in more enquiries for properties as adults decide to finally move out after procrastinating for years.
We are seeing a new trend for GLS sites as government now require developers to include extra ancillary works from developers when they bid for Government Land Sales (GLS) to also require developers to build roads, parks, bus interchange, community centres, etc. These will result in higher costs and take up part of the land area therefore transferring the higher cost to buyers eventually.
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Real estate consultant Kiwi Lim from Huttons Asia Pte Ltd believe these new timely relief measures will prevent developers from being pressured to offer steep discounts due to Covid-19 effect on the market.
(i) Extension of the Project Completion Period (PCP) by 6 months for residential, commercial and industrial development projects;
(ii) Extension of time by 6 months for the commencement and completion of residential development, and sale of housing units in residential development projects in relation to the remission of the Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) for housing developers;
(iii) Extension of the PCP and/or disposal period by up to a total of 6 months for residential development projects under the Qualifying Certificate (QC) regime for foreign housing developers
(i) The land was awarded on or before 1 June 2020, or the land was directly alienated or had their lease renewed by SLA on or before 1 June 2020; and
(ii) The original timeline for the project to be completed was on or after 1 February 2020.
Eligible developers will be notified by the respective agencies. No application is necessary.
To qualify for the extension of the specified timeline for commencement of residential development, both of the following conditions are to be met:
(i) The land was purchased on or before 1 June 2020; and
(ii) The original timeline for commencement of the residential development expired on or after 1 February 2020.
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New Temporary Relief Measures for Singaporean Married Couples Affected By Remission of ABSD Timeline
(i) Extension of the Project Completion Period (PCP) by 6 months for residential, commercial and industrial development projects;
Buyers of buildings-under-construction (BUC) will now have a bit more time to pay their progressive payment as developers are given more time to build their projects.
(ii) Extension of time by 6 months for the sale of the first residential property in relation to the remission of ABSD for the second residential property purchased by a Singaporean married couple.
Under the ABSD regime, a Singaporean married couple purchasing a second residential property jointly has to sell their first residential property within the specified timeline, failing which they will not be eligible for a remission of the ABSD paid on their second residential property. The specified timeline for sale of the first residential property is:
(i) 6 months after the date of purchase of the second property, if it is a completed property; or
(ii) 6 months after the issue date of the Temporary Occupation Permit (“TOP”) or Certificate of Statutory Completion (“CSC”), whichever is the earlier, if the second property was uncompleted at the time of purchase.
(i) The couple’s second residential property was jointly purchased on or before 1 June 2020; and
(ii) The original timeline for sale of the first residential property expired on or after 1 February 2020.
Eligible Singaporean married couples can refer to the IRAS website for more details. The application for the remission of ABSD must be made within 6 months after the date of sale of the first residential property.
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The package, rolled out by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the financial sector on Tuesday (31 March 2020), also offers cash flow support to small and medium-sized enterprises, such as by ensuring continued access to bank credit and insurance cover. It will also help to ensure that interbank funding markets remain liquid and well-functioning, the MAS added.
MAS anticipates many individuals and SMEs in Singapore to face challenges in managing their cash flows and meeting their financial obligations, such as loan repayments and insurance premiums and therefore worked with the Association of Banks in Singapore, the Life Insurance Association, the General Insurance Association and the Finance Houses of Association of Singapore for the slew of measures to help individuals, i.e. allowing them to defer either principal payment or both principal and interest payments on their residential property loans until 31 Dec 2020. Interest will accrue only on the deferred principal amount, and no interest will be charged on the deferred interest payments, the MAS said.
Lenders will approve the request for deferment if the applicant is not in arrears for more than 90 days as at April 6, 2020. Applicants also do not need to show that they had been hit by the Covid-19 fallout to obtain approval. Those with unsecured loans can also apply to their lenders to convert their outstanding balances into term loans at a reduced rate of interest, capped at 8 per cent. This is lower than the 26 per cent typically charged on credit cards, MAS noted.
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"Deferring payments increases future obligations and hence borrowers and policyholders should weigh their options carefully," said the MAS. Applications open on April 1 for insurers, and April 6 for banks.
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Mortgagee listings may increase if COVID-19 pandemic stretches beyond 3rd quarter of 2020 - Colliers
With rising listings, the success rate fell further to 1.4% in 2019, lower than the 3.2% achieved in 2018 and the lowest annual level in our database. However, this rate does not take into account properties sold before or after the auctions. The results from Colliers International’s auctions indicated that the success rate including sales during and outside of Colliers’ auctions and excludes re-listings, was much higher at 13.3% in 2019. Of the 21 properties knocked down during auctions in 2019, 16 (or 76.2%) were mortgagee sales, a decline of 33.3% YOY from 24 in 2018. Of these 16 mortgagee sales in 2019, eight were residential (down 50.0% YOY), four were industrial (down 33.3% YOY) and four were retail (up four times YOY).
Personal circumstances such as loss of job or bankruptcy could also have led to higher defaults. After cooling measures in July 2018, possibly more distressed owners were unable to dispose of properties quickly enough, leading to default. Retail mortgagee listings saw a 72.7% increase YOY to 114 as many were small units in strata-titled malls or locations with low foot traffic which had difficulty finding tenants or sustainable rents, leaving owners unable to support mortgage payments. Industrial mortgagee listings rose by 29.5% YOY to 189 while office mortgagee listings surged by eight times YOY to 16.
Colliers expected an increase in distressed or mortgagee sales in the retail, industrial and residential sectors from the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak especially if it precipitates a downturn into H2 2020 with prices to be more realistic, leading to an improved success rate.
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Thanks to the new extension, commuters can expect to save up to 25 minutes when they travel from Punggol Central to Pasir Ris, down from the 40 to 45 minutes it currently takes, the Land Transport Authority (LTA) said on Tuesday (10 March 2020).
Elias station, meanwhile, will be located near the residential blocks of Pasir Ris Drive 3, industrial developments at Pasir Ris Drive 12 and Elias Mall. The trains on the Punggol extension will have six cars that can expand to eight when demand rises, similar to those on the main CRL. Ridership on the entire CRL is expected to rise from 600,000 initially to one million in the future.
- 17 Jan 2013: Cross Island Line announced as part of the Land Transport Master Plan 2013
- Aug 2014 – End 2016: Environmental Impact Assessment
- 25 Jan 2019: First Phase of Cross Island Line with 12 stations officially announced, slated to open by 2029
- 25 May 2019: Cross Island Line to connect to Punggol by 2031, as announced in LTMP 2040.
- 4 Dec 2019: Direct Alignment option under Central Catchment Nature Reserve for Cross Island Line chosen by Ministry of Transport
- 10 Mar 2020: Cross Island Line Punggol Extension with 4 stations (including Pasir Ris) officially announced, slated to open by 2031
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In September last year, Member of Parliament Louis Ng raised the issue in parliament that despite the Government’s efforts to be more inclusive, it has not completely resolved the housing needs of single unwed parents, especially those under the age of 35.
Unwed mothers face a double disadvantage: They single-handedly bear not only the typical burden of motherhood, but also the stigma and tribulations of being unmarried in a society that encourages a mainstream definition of parenthood (i.e. within marriage). Single parenthood also sees one person take on an incredibly heavy responsibility meant for two.
This is a cumulation of effort by MPs, activists, social workers and single parents themselves who were instrumental in moving Singapore toward greater compassion for unwed mothers. Unreliable housing seriously undermines a mother’s ability to stay employed, to protect her children from abuse, and to have the time and space to plan for her family’s future.
The struggle for a life free from discrimination and social stigma is far from over for these mothers. There is still much work to create a roadmap towards housing equality for all mothers so that an unwed mother and her children would count as a family nucleus, enabling them to apply for public housing under the Families Scheme. We hope that in future, unwed parents, whether the children end up with the father or mother, would have access to housing as a matter of policy and not on a case-by-case basis. There would be a separate scheme for those under the age of 35 to apply for 2- or 3-room flats (similar to the existing Orphans or Joint Singles Scheme). - CNA Commentary Article Online